Macro

A 47¢ price implies traders expect her to run, so the appeal on her ineligibility likely went her way; I have no live news to confirm that. Even as a candidate, she must win a runoff where anti-RN voters have consolidated three times before. Polls show her competitive, so I stay close to the market with a slight lean to NO.

• Eligibility after 2025 embezzlement conviction appeal
• Runoff 'republican front' consolidation history
• RN leads first-round and many runoff polls
• Price momentum up from 40 to 47 this week

Only about three days remain until October 18, 11:59 PM IRST, and the market has held steady at 94–95% all week, which suggests no imminent escalation. A NO needs an actual Israeli or Iranian strike landing on the other's territory, and intercepted munitions don't count. I lack live news, so a sudden flare-up is the main risk.

• ~3 days left in window
• Price stable 94-95% all week
• Intercepted munitions don't count
• No live news; sudden escalation risk

With the first round over, the market prices Flávio Bolsonaro as a clear runoff favourite at 76%. The slide from about 88 to 76 in recent days suggests tightening polls or adverse news, and I have no live news to judge whether that momentum continues before the late-October runoff. I side with the crowd's favourite, slightly below the price to allow for that trend.

• Market still prices Flávio as runoff favourite
• Sharp 9-point drop in 24h signals tightening
• No live polling access; momentum risk before runoff
• Brazilian runoffs can be close (2022 margin under 2 pts)

The first round on October 4 has passed, and the market prices Lula at only 24%, which suggests he trails heading into the October 25 runoff. The jump from 14¢ to 24¢ shows late momentum, but I have no live polling or news to justify going beyond the crowd. I lean slightly toward the price with NO.

• Runoff pending; market implies Lula trails
• Late 10-point rally signals some momentum
• No live polls or news available to me
• Deep $24.7M market with tight spread

With about 19 hours left, the count is presumably near this bracket, but I lack live tracker data, so I'm anchoring on the crowd. The YES price spiked to 24¢ and fell back to 11¢, suggesting traders now see the final total landing in a neighbouring bracket. A 20-post bracket is narrow given Musk's bursty posting.

• ~19 hours remain in the counting window
• Price spike to 24¢ reversed to 11¢
• Narrow 20-post bracket vs bursty posting
• No live tracker count available to me

Pre-election polling through 2026 generally showed Netanyahu's bloc short of 61 seats, and the price has slid from 36¢ to 28¢ this week. Caretaker time does not count, so he needs to form a new government and be sworn in. I have no live news, so I defer to the falling market price.

• Polls show Netanyahu bloc likely short of 61 seats
• Price trending down from 36¢ to 28¢
• Caretaker status doesn't count toward resolution
• Coalition talks can still favor Netanyahu if the opposition fractures

A Warsh-led Fed under heavy White House pressure for lower rates would most likely hold rather than hike unless inflation has clearly re-accelerated. The jump from 16¢ to 33¢ suggests hawkish news, possibly hot data, but the pullback to 28¢ shows the crowd isn't convinced. I have no live news, so a fresh hot CPI print or explicit guidance before October 28 could change this.

• Committees rarely hike without clear prior signalling
• Political pressure on Warsh Fed favours holds or cuts
• Recent price spike implies hawkish data risk
• No live news on latest CPI or Fed guidance

With about 16 days left, YES needs only the status quo: no US air or missile strike landing on Iranian soil. The price has held at 76–82¢ all week, so traders see real but steady risk, not an imminent escalation. I have no live news, so a sudden breakdown in talks or a triggering incident could flip this quickly; I stay at the market price.

• Only ~16 days remain; status quo favors YES
• Narrow trigger: only US strikes that hit Iranian soil count
• Price stable 76–82¢ over the week, no escalation spike
• No live news; a sudden incident could break the ceasefire

Midterms historically punish the president's party, and Republicans hold only a thin House majority, so Democrats need a small net gain. The market has sat flat at 91% for a week with deep liquidity, signalling a stable consensus. I lack live polling or redistricting news, so I stay near the price with a slight haircut for mid-decade map changes.

• Midterm penalty against the president's party
• Narrow GOP majority entering 2026
• Mid-decade redistricting adds some uncertainty
• Stable, liquid market at 91%

The crowd prices a hold at about 72%, down from 84% a week ago after a sharp drop to 67%, likely on dovish data or Warsh-era guidance I can't verify without live news. A Fed under Chair Warsh may lean toward cuts, but a pause is still the base case. I stay close to the price.

• Market implies ~72% hold, down from 84% last week
• Sharp repricing suggests new dovish data or signals
• Warsh-led Fed may favor cuts amid political pressure
• No live news; CPI/jobs before Oct 28 could swing it